Can vaping cause lung cancer? What the latest evidence says

“Nicotine-based e-cigarettes are likely to be carcinogenic”
Source: Carcinogenesis, 2026

A new peer reviewed paper has added weight to concerns about vaping and cancer risk.

The paper, published in Carcinogenesis, concludes that nicotine-based e-cigarettes are likely to be carcinogenic and are likely to cause an indeterminate burden of lung cancer and oral cancer.

This is not the same as having decades of long term human data showing exactly how many people who vape will go on to develop lung cancer. The authors describe the burden as indeterminate, and this is a qualitative risk assessment, not a long term population study following large groups of people over many years.

So when people ask, can vaping cause lung cancer, the most accurate answer right now is this: the warning is stronger than before, but the science is still developing.

What the new paper says

The new paper brings together evidence from human studies, animal studies and mechanistic research published between 2017 and mid-2025. It looks at biological changes linked to cancer development, including DNA damage, oxidative stress, inflammation and tissue injury. It also draws on animal data and case reports in humans.

Taken together, the authors say this evidence now points to nicotine-based e-cigarettes being likely to be carcinogenic to humans who use them. This moves the discussion beyond vague concern.

This is a formal academic paper in a peer reviewed journal, not just a headline or opinion piece.

Is this completely new?

Not entirely. It builds on earlier work from the Clinical Oncology Society of Australia, which in 2025 warned that nicotine-based e-cigarettes were likely to be carcinogenic and likely to cause lung and oral cancer.

What is new now is that the warning has been reinforced in a peer reviewed journal paper. That gives the issue more scientific weight and makes it harder to dismiss.

Does vaping cause lung cancer?

The honest answer is that we still do not have the sort of long term human data that would let researchers put an exact figure on the risk over time.

But the direction of travel is clear. The evidence pointing to a cancer risk is stronger than it was before. The new paper says nicotine-based e-cigarettes are likely to be carcinogenic, with likely links to lung and oral cancer.

So it would be wrong to say vaping is harmless. It would also be wrong to say the exact long term cancer risk has already been fully mapped out. The current evidence sits somewhere in between: serious enough to warrant concern, but not yet able to answer every question.

Why this is still debated

Part of the debate is about time.

E-cigarettes have not been around long enough for researchers to track cancer outcomes over several decades in the way they eventually did with tobacco. That gap in long term data is one reason some experts say the conclusions should be treated with caution. In expert comments collected by the UK Science Media Centre, some researchers argued that the review may go further than the current evidence allows and said dose, exposure and comparison with smoking all matter.

That criticism should be taken seriously.

At the same time, the authors of the new paper argue that waiting for decades of population data before acting would repeat mistakes made with tobacco, where early biological warning signs were visible long before the full public health toll became obvious.

Vaping is not smoking, but that does not make it safe

This is where the conversation often becomes muddled.

In the UK, government advice says vaping is less harmful than smoking and can help adult smokers quit. But the same guidance is also clear that if you do not smoke, you should not vape, and that children should never vape.

The World Health Organization also says e-cigarettes are harmful to health and are not safe, while making clear that it is still too early to provide a full answer on their long term impact.

Both things can be true at the same time. Vaping may be less harmful than smoking for some adult smokers who switch completely. That does not mean vaping is harmless, especially for young people or people who would not otherwise have used nicotine products.

Why this is so important for young people

This part is already clear enough to act on.

WHO says e-cigarette use among children and young people is rising in many countries and that these products are often promoted in ways that appeal to younger audiences. WHO also says evidence consistently shows e-cigarette use increases conventional cigarette uptake among non-smoking youth.

That means this is not just a debate about future cancer statistics. It is also a debate about nicotine addiction, youth uptake and preventable harm now.

Bottom line

A new peer reviewed paper has moved the evidence on. It does not settle every question, and it does not give us a final number for lung cancer risk. But it does add weight to concerns that nicotine-based e-cigarettes may cause lung cancer and oral cancer.

So when people ask, can vaping cause lung cancer, the most accurate answer right now is this:

The evidence is getting stronger, the warning is more serious than before, and it should not be ignored.